Winning - October 2018

Keeping track of the GOP and Trump Administration:

• The New York Times publishes an investigative story alleging that the Trump family participated in dubious, often illegal tax schemes for decades. The New York State Department of Taxation and Finance said they will investigate.
• It appears that Donald Trump is mostly the product of daddy Fred Trump and not the self-made man he professes to be. What a surprise.
• A federal judge temporarily blocks the Trump administration from terminating the legal status of 300,000 immigrants who fled violence in Haiti, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Sudan.
• Nikki Haley resigns as US Ambassador to the UN. What's next for her? 
• Elizabeth Warren's DNA test shows that she has Native American ancestors. Trump denies promising to pay $1 million to her favorite charity. Unfortunately for him, there is video proof he said it. 
• HUD and Interior departments are having a spat over Suzanne Israel Tuft. Which department does she work for and what are her duties? HUD Secretary Ben Carson seems confused. Surprise. 
• Suzanne Israel Tuft resigned from whatever government job she had. Fishy.
• In related news, Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke was found to have violated department policy on travel. Swampy.
• Another condominium has voted to remove the Trump name. Trump Place at 200 Riverside Blvd., NYC. 
• Trump hails Montana Congressman Greg Gianforte for bodyslamming a journalist. This while the murder of Jamal Khashoggi is being "investigated". 
• Trump blames the Pittsburg synagogue for the shooting because they didn't have an armed guard. Blame the victims. 
• Trump doesn't cancel political rally because the New York Stock Exchange opened the day after 9/11. Except that is wrong. The NYSE did not open that day or several days after that.  Ignorance is bliss.
• Wrong again. Trump says the US is the only country with birthright citizenship. He also thinks he can nullify the 14th Amendment with an Executive Order.
• At least one of the three or more internal investigations of Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke has been turned over to the Justice Department. More swamp activity.

wjh

Required Arms Escalation

The Pittsburg synagogue shooting is just the most recent instance of a mass shooting by a well-armed wacko. After this shooting, our President decided to blame the synagogue and its congregation for the heinous attack. How you ask could he possibly do that? Well, he said that they should have had an armed guard who theoretically could have stopped the shooter. Right. This shooter had an assault rifle and several handguns. He shot four cops including two members of the Pittsburg SWAT team. Officers trained and equipped to deal with these situations. So our deep thinking President supposes that a rent-a-cop or armed congregation member could have made much of a difference. Right.

Have any of you actually paid attention to private security guards? Most of them do not inspire confidence. How many have you seen and instantly thought, this is a tough warrior who will protect me at all cost? Many of these private security guards are old, out of shape, and without any training or experience. It is usually a low-paying, low-skill position. I worked at a bank for several years. I often saw guards fast asleep at their post. One old guy was hard of hearing and had a gun so rusty that even if it were to fire it was more apt to blow up in his hand than stop a bad guy. Even the off-duty cops hired for security are probably tired from already working a full police shift.  

So the NRA, GOP, Trump solution to mass shootings is armed guards. Who and what needs these guards? Schools, daycare centers, houses of worship, movie theaters, sports venues, malls and stores, restaurants, what else? How about homes where there are home-schooled children? Home daycare businesses? Do churches need guards 24/7 or just for scheduled services? Does a small take-out restaurant need a guard? How about that Little League baseball or pee-wee football game? Is there a threshold for the number of people gathered together that requires an armed guard? Who will pay for all these guards? Will there be an "armed guard" service fee added to all tickets, restaurant bills, daycare fees, store purchases, etc.? Will Washington pick up the tab?

I'm assuming that when these armed guards fail to stop well-armed wackos there will be increased requirements. First more guards at ever smaller venues. The illogical conclusion to this is to require all citizens to be armed. What's the age limit, adults 18 and over, maybe 16 so you get a drivers license and a gun at the same time. Maybe at five or six on the first day of school. Of course, simple handguns may not be enough. Do they make kid-size AR-15's, an AR-7½? 

Luckily, all the money spent on metal detectors won't be wasted. In the arms required future, if you don't set off the metal detector, you can't enter. In fact, you may be subject to arrest or at least a fine. 

Gun violence of all kinds is a serious problem in our country and I don't think more guns is the solution. Just as I don't think more opioids is a solution to that epidemic. Higher speed limits is not a way to reduce highway accidents and deaths. More junk food does not reduce obesity. So, why do more guns solve a gun problem? 

There is no one answer to this problem or will we ever completely eliminate this issue as long as there are millions of guns in circulation. That doesn't mean we should give up and not try to drastically reduce gun deaths and injuries. How about we start with the one thing most people agree on, universal background checks for all gun purchases. No exceptions, no loopholes. The NRA be damned.

wjh  

The Genius

In Trump's interview by the AP, climate change was one topic. The reporter asked, "Scientists say this is nearing a point where this can’t be reversed.”

The response was, “No, no. Some say that, and some say differently. I mean, you have scientists on both sides of it. My uncle was a great professor at MIT for many years. Dr. John Trump. And I didn’t talk to him about this particular subject, but I have a natural instinct for science, and I will say that you have scientists on both sides of the picture.”
Actually, you have most, about 97%, on the side of serious climate change problems and a very few who disagree. What's this "natural instinct" for science because of an uncle? BTW, Uncle John was an electrical engineer and physicist, not a climatologist.

In the same vein, during the 60 Minutes interview by Lesley Stahl, Trump said that he knows more about NATO than Secretary of Defense James Mattis, a retired Marine Corps general. Mattis served as NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Transformation for almost three years and over 40 years of service in the Marines. There is no way he could have learned anything about NATO. Certainly not more than a genius president who has been in office for about 21 months and has zero military experience.

Name any subject and Trump will claim to be smarter than anyone else. He'll either just know it, have a feeling, a knack, maybe an instinct, or some other divine intervention.

I am amazed that anybody is able to fit into a room occupied by Trump and his ego. Let's all hope that he doesn't have an instinct to use nuclear weapons to solve a problem.

Not only a jenius, but a stable one at that.

wjh

Mueller Time - Third Quarter 2018

On 05/17/2017, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein appointed Robert Mueller as Special Council. Mueller was to investigate any possible collusion between the Trump presidential campaign or other Americans and the Russian government regarding the 2016 elections. The investigation was not limited to that issue and any crimes discovered while investigating were also subject to prosecution and/or being turned over to the Justice Department or state prosecutors.

A partial list of third quarter 2018 news about the investigation. The Mueller team remains remarkably tight-lipped about their activities. Most information comes from public court filings and hearings. 

• 7/13 - Mueller's team and DOJ indict 12 Russian intelligence officers for the hacking of the DNC and Clinton campaign. 
• 7/17 - Mueller asks for immunity for five witnesses in the Paul Manafort trial.
• 7/31 - Paul Manafort's financial fraud trial in Virginia begins. 
• 8/10 - A federal judge holds Andrew Miller, a Roger Stone and Trump associate, in contempt of court for refusing to testify before Mueller's grand jury.  
• 8/21 - Paul Manafort found guilty on eight of 18 counts.
• 8/21 - Michael Cohen pleads guilty to eight counts including campaign finance violations. Implicates Trump.
• 9/7 - George Papadopoulos is sentenced to 14 days in jail for lying to the FBI. The light sentence was part of a plea deal for cooperating with the Mueller investigation.
• 9/14 - Paul Manafort pleads guilty to conspiring to defraud the United States and conspiring to obstruct justice. He agrees to cooperate with the Special Counsel investigation as part of the plea deal. 

With the exception of the Paul Manafort and Michael Cohen court dealings, it was a quiet quarter for public news and details. I don't expect much news until after the mid-term elections on November 6th. 

wjh

Winning September 2018

Keeping track of the GOP and Trump Administration:

• Bob Woodward's book Fear, depicts an administration in chaos and staff thwarting Trump's worst instincts. 
• 9/5 - An alleged Trump administration senior official writes a New York Times op-ed piece that confirms Woodward's White House staff resistance to Trump's erratic behavior. 
• 9/7 - Former Trump campaign foreign policy adviser George Papadopoulos is sentenced to 14 days in jail after pleading guilty to lying to the FBI.
• 9/14 - Paul Manafort, former Trump campaign manager, pleads guilty to conspiring to defraud the United States and conspiring to obstruct justice. He agrees to cooperate with the Special Counsel investigation as part of the plea deal. 
• Trump's nominee for the Supreme Court, Brett Kavanaugh, is accused of sexual molestation during his high school and college days. The confirmation is delayed by additional Senate Judiciary Committee hearings and an FBI investigation.
• 9/28 - A federal judge ruled that the Congressional Democrats suite against President Trump about doing business with foreign governments can proceed. 

wjh

Winning - August 2018

Keeping track of the GOP and Trump Administration:

• Trump and the Koch Network openly at odds. The Koch's have pledged $400 million in midterm election funding. 
• Trump again calls the media "the enemy of the people". Ivanka says they are not.
• Trump calls LeBron James dumb. Melania says LeBron is doing good work and she is open to visiting his new school. 
• Trump's in-laws, Melania's parents, become US citizens. They took advantage of "chain migration", an immigration program that Trump decries and wants to eliminate. Can you spell h-y-p-o-c-r-i-t-e?
• Rep. Chris Collins (R-N.Y.), an early and staunch Trump supporter, is charged with insider trading.
• China and US impose 25% tariffs on $18 billion of additional goods. Chinese tariffs are on cars and energy.
• Omarosa Manigault Newman's new book, Unhinged: An Insider Account of the Trump White House, alleges that Trump is racist, unqualified, narcissistic, misogynist, and a bigot. She also has recordings to back up some claims in the book. Uncomfortable.
• 8/15 - Trump admits in a Wall Street Journal interview that he revoked John Brennan's security clearance because of his involvement in the Russian investigation. No security reasons, just spite, and revenge.  
• Trump's military parade has been postponed until next year or maybe never. Projected cost had ballooned to over $90 million.
• 8/21 - Former Trump lawyer and associate Michael Cohen pleads guilty to tax and bank fraud and campaign finance violations. Says he paid off women on Trump's orders. 
• 8/21 - Trump's former campaign manager, Paul Manafort, is found guilty on eight counts. Tax evasion, bank fraud, and not reporting a foreign bank account.
• 8/25 - A federal judge strikes down most of Trump's executive orders attempting to make it easier to fire government employees and weaken their unions.
• White House counsel Donald McGahn to leave the administration this fall. 
• 8/31 - W. Samuel Patten pleaded guilty to one count of violating the Foreign Agents Registration Act for failing to register with the Justice Department. He also admitted that he steered an illegal $50K donation from a Ukrainian businessman to the Trump inauguration.

wjh

The Trump Script

As allegations of wrongdoing by Trump, his campaign, and his administration become public, a script for dealing with these allegations has emerged. In general, the script follows the following steps:

1. Negative story or allegation comes to light
2. Complete denial
3. Claim "Fake News"
4. Attack the accusers
5. Claim "Fake News"
6. Less emphatic denial
7. Claim "Fake News"
8. Attack the accusers
9. Claim "Fake News"
10. Discredit the investigators
11. Claim "Fake News"
12. Maybe the accusation is partially true
13. Claim "witch hunt"
14. Discredit the accusers
15. Claim "witch hunt"
16. Admit the accusations after corroborating evidence comes to light
17. Offer confusing reasons and alternative stories
18. Claim "witch hunt"
19. Fully admit the accusation
20. Contend that the actions in the accusation are not a crime
21. Continue to claim "witch hunt"
22. Continue to discredit accusers and investigators
23. Create a new crisis as a diversion

Not every step is invoked for every allegation. Sometimes steps are repeated multiple times. These steps are carried out via Twitter, Trump statements, Sarah Sanders, Kellyanne Conway, Rudy Giuliani, or numerous other administration apologists.

It is a pattern that has been repeated often enough that even Trump supporters should recognize. 

Every negative story or report about Trump, his administration, and the GOP is not "fake news". In fact, very few from the mainstream media have been even erroneous let alone fake. 

While I don't pretend to know what the next big story or allegations will be, I can confidently predict that the above "wash, rinse, repeat" scenario will be employed. 

wjh