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Saturday, January 19, 2019

The Art of the No Deal

On January 19, 2019, President Trump addressed the nation to propose his new offer to end the border wall stalemate that has closed parts of our government. 

Here was the essence of Trump's new deal. Give me all the $5.7 billion that I want for my beautiful permanent wall and I will give you three years of temporary protections for the Dreamers (DACA - Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivalsand those in temporary protected status (TPS). That is a my permanent for your temporary kind of deal. No future guarantees to ever resolve or make permanent your temporary perks. Does that seem fair? 

A fair counterproposal by the Democrats would be to give permanent legal status to the Dreamers for a temporary wall that must be torn down in three years. 

There were no new ideas in Trump's proposal. Several variations have been offered before by Democrats, Republicans, and bipartisan groups in Congress. Trump has turned them all down, often after initially agreeing to them. The man can't be trusted. There is no reason to believe he would negotiate in good faith about DACA or TPS once he gets permanent wall funding. By the way, it was Trump himself who took away the protections of DACA and TPS. Offering to undo what he did is not bipartisan negotiations, it is closer to demanding a ransom. 

It has also been reported that the preparation for this latest Trump proposal was cobbled together by VP Mike Pence, acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, and boy wonder Jarod Kushner. All members of his administration. Maybe a little input from some other Republicans. Absolutely no input from Democrats. That's Trump's definition of bipartisan. No word yet whether Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, and/or Sean Hannity helped with the plan. 

Let's also note that the Dreamers are currently protected while the courts decide their fate. There is no telling how long those court cases will take to be resolved. The latest indication is that the Supreme Court may not take up the case. Those in the TPS program are in a slightly more precarious position although their fate is tied up in the courts too. 

Now let's do some fact checking on Trump's address. He stated that "some say" his border wall could cut crime and drugs in the US by up to half. That is ludicrous. First, that assumes that the vast majority of crime in this country is committed by illegal immigrants. Second, it assumes that most of the drugs coming into our country come across the border in places that currently do not have a wall. Most of the illegal drugs come into the country through legal ports of entry, land, sea, and air. Many come in trucks and cars through government staffed checkpoints at the Mexican border. 

Trump stated that there are over 70,000 drug deaths a year in this country. That is accurate and it is tragic. Of course, that number includes OD deaths from all drugs, legal and illegal. He also stated that illegal drugs use cost society $700 billion. I have been unable to find any confirmation for that number. Any drug costs again, include both legal and illegal drugs and they are lower than $700 billion.

Trump mentioned the "radical" left or the "extreme" left and his perception that they have not been willing to compromise. Not any mention of the extreme right or Republican's unwillingness to compromise. It's never a good idea to call your opponents names when trying to strike a deal.

Finally, our always empathetic president failed to mention the 800,000 government employees who are not getting paid.

wjh

Wednesday, January 2, 2019

Mueller Time - Fourth Quarter 2018

On 05/17/2017, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein appointed Robert Mueller as Special Council. Mueller was to investigate any possible collusion between the Trump presidential campaign or other Americans and the Russian government regarding the 2016 elections. The investigation was not limited to that issue and any crimes discovered while investigating were also subject to prosecution and/or being turned over to the Justice Department or state prosecutors.

A partial list of fourth quarter 2018 news about the investigation. The Mueller team remained remarkably tight-lipped about their activities. Most information comes from public court filings and hearings. There was a flurry of activity after the midterm elections. 

  • As expected, Mueller and his team were very quiet in October during the run-up to the midterm elections.
  • AG Jeff Sessions is fired by Trump right after the midterm elections and replaced by Matthew Whitaker who says he will now oversee the Mueller investigation. Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein's role is unclear.
  • 11/20 - Trump submits his answers to Mueller's questions about Russian interference in the 2016 elections.
  • 11/26 - Mueller's team says that Paul Manafort has violated his plea deal by repeatedly lying to the FBI. Both sides have asked that sentencing proceeds on the charges he has already been found guilty of. 
  • 11/29 - Michael Cohen pleads guilty to additional charges of lying to Congress. He also details Trump's involvement in financial dealings with Russia in 2016.
  • 12/04 - Mueller recommends no jail time for Michael Flynn because of his substantial cooperation with the special counsel office. 
  • 12/07 - Federal prosecutors recommend "substantial" prison time for Michael Cohen, former Trump lawyer and "fixer. They indicate that although he did cooperate with prosecutors, he didn't disclose everything he knew. 
  • 12/07 - New York Federal prosecutors and Mueller's team filed court papers directly implicating President Trump in plans to buy women’s silence as far back as 2014 and offering new evidence of Russian efforts to forge a political alliance with Trump before he became president.
  • 12/07 - In a document filed in federal court, Special counsel Robert S. Mueller III said that Paul Manafort told “multiple dis­cern­ible lies” during interviews with prosecutors, including about his contacts with an employee who is alleged to have ties to Russian intelligence. Mueller also said Manafort lied about his contacts with Trump administration officials after Trump took office.
  • 12/17 - Bijan Kian and Ekim Alptekin, two former business associates of Michael Flynn, are indicted as part of a Turkish conspiracy to violate federal lobbying rules. Alptekin was also charged with lying to the FBI.
  • New Senate report says Russian disinformation teams targetted Special Counsel Robert Mueller. Of course they did. Putin is trying to help his buddy, Trump. 
  • 12/18 - A federal judge delays the sentencing of Michael Flynn. Mueller had recommended no jail time due to Flynn's cooperation. 
  • 12/19 - Mueller seeks a transcript of Trump associate Roger Stone's testimony to the House Intelligence Committee.
wjh

Winning - December 2018

Keeping track of the GOP and Trump Administration:
  • The one thing Trump is truly good at, world-class, lying. The latest count is 7,546 in 700 days. Almost 11/day, 15/day in 2018. 
  • All the major market exchanges are down for the year. The Dow started 2018 at 24,824, peaked in October at 26,828 and ended the year at 23,327. The biggest yearly decline, 5.6%, in 10 years. Trump took most of the credit for the gains in 2017, now he's silent and looking for someone to blame. Can't have it both ways Donny. 
  • Trump says Cohen is lying about the Russian real estate deal. Then adds, even if it was true, Trump did nothing illegal. A typical Trump script when he is caught. Wrong isn't always illegal.
  • In a closed-door briefing, Senators are convinced by CIA Director Gina Haspel that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) ordered the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. Trump continues to support MBS.
  • 12/04 - Attorneys General from Maryland and DC subpoena financial records and other documents from 13 Trump entities as part of the emoluments lawsuits. Several federal agencies also received subpoenas that have contact with Trump businesses.
  • In an interview, former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson calls Trump undisciplined, doesn't like to read, and tries to do illegal things. No surprises here.
    • Trump goes off the rails and sends a tantrum tweet calling Rex Tillerson "dumb as a rock" and lazy. Trump again shows his maturity. 
  • "Individual 1", aka Trump, is implicated in court documents in the Michael Cohen cases.
  • 12/08 - Trump announces that chief of staff John Kelly will be leaving the White House by the end of the year. Quit or fired? Another adult leaves the administration. Kelly was too disciplined for chaotic Trump.  
  • 12/09 - Nick Ayers, Trump's top candidate to replace John Kelly as chief of staff, will not take the job. He will also be leaving the White House by the end of the year. It's tough to find good help when you are a bad boss.
  • The ongoing Trump/Russia investigation has determined that at least 14 Trump associates interacted with Russians during the presidential campaign and transition.
  • The Fact Checker creates a new category, the Bottomless Pinocchio, to describe the level and number of Trumps lies. He has already been awarded 14 Bottomless Pinocchio awards. Our Liar-in-Chief.
  • 12/12 - Former Trump lawyer and fixer, Michael Cohen, is sentenced to three years in prison for lying to Congress, tax fraud, and election finance violations. 
  • 12/12 - Federal prosecutors reveal a plea deal with The National Enquirer's parent company and CEO, David Pecker, in the Trump hush money cases. No prosecution for cooperation. More damning evidence revealed and corroborated. 
  • 12/12 - Lobbyist Sam Patten pleads guilty of failure to register as a foreign agent and to steering foreign funds to the Trump inauguration fun. The foreigner was a pro-Russian Ukrainian oligarch. Very swampy. 
  • Federal employee morale and job satisfaction decline at 60% of federal offices. Public criticism and new work policies by the head guy don't help. 
  • 12/13 - The US Senate votes to end US participation in the Yemen War. They also unanimously passed a measure blaming the Saudi crown prince for the ghastly murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Both votes are a rebuke of Trump's Saudi and MBS support.
  • A poll shows that fewer than three in ten Americans believe Trump. Even fewer than 50% of ardent Trump supporters believe him. That can't be a good thing.
  • 12/15 - Trump announces that Secretary of the Interior, Ryan Zinke will be leaving his post. Good riddance to a corrupt enemy of the environment. 
  • 12/15 - A new report to the Senate Intelligence Committee indicates Russian interference in the 2016 election was even wider and more pro-Trump than previously thought. 
  • New Senate report says Russian disinformation teams targetted Special Counsel Robert Mueller. Of course, they did. Putin is trying to help his buddy, Trump. 
  • Roger Stone admits spreading lies on InfoWars. As settlement in a defamation lawsuit, he must apologize and publicly retract the statements. What a surprise that Stone would lie. One of the swampiest creatures in Trump's swamp. What a surprise that InfoWars would help spread false information. 
  • 12/18 - Trump backs down on his threat to shut down the government over his border (or is it, boarder) wall funding. 
  • 12/18 - The Trump Foundation charity will close down. The New York state lawsuit against the charity, Donald, Donald Jr., Eric, and Ivanka Trump will continue. 
  • Trump orders the immediate withdrawal of all US troops from Syria. The decision is almost universally disagreed with. The exceptions, Syria, Iran, Turkey, and good buddy Vladamir Putin praise Trump. 
  • In more good news for Putin, Trump plans to lift sanctions against Russian oligarcOleg V. Deripaska and his businesses. Merry Christmas Vlad. 
  • It's bad news for the US and the military. Secretary of Defense James Mattis resigns over differences with Trump. The Syria withdrawal seems to be the final straw. Mattis was one of the few in the administration who would challenge Trump. The last of "Trump's generals" to leave. 
    • In a temper tantrum after actually reading Mattis's resignation letter, Trump pushes him out effective 1/1/2019 rather than the scheduled February departure. Another mature adult move by our baby president. 
    • Patrick Shanahan, Deputy Secretary of Defense, is named acting Secretary replacing Mattis immediately. 
  • Brett H. McGurk, the special presidential envoy to the coalition fighting the Islamic State, is also stepping down over Mr. Trump’s decision to pull troops from Syria.
  • Trump says he'll withdraw about 7,000 troops from Afghanistan. That is approximately half of our forces. Again, it comes as a surprise to almost everyone including the Afghan government. 
  • 12/21 - The Supreme Court refuses to allow Trump to bar illegal immigrants from seeking asylum. 
  • Perhaps Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan should be named as our next Secretary of Defense. He seems to have more influence over Trump than former Marine general Mattis did.
  • After publicly saying that he would "take the mantle" of responsibility for a government shutdown over the border wall,  “I will be the one to shut it down. I’m not going to blame you for it.” Trump now blames the Democrats. I was taught that a man's word meant something. Not with this grifter. 
  • As 2018 comes to a close, about ¼ of our federal employees are not getting paid and vital government services are not getting done. #Trumpshutdown
wjh