Winning - August 2018

Keeping track of the GOP and Trump Administration:

• Trump and the Koch Network openly at odds. The Koch's have pledged $400 million in midterm election funding. 
• Trump again calls the media "the enemy of the people". Ivanka says they are not.
• Trump calls LeBron James dumb. Melania says LeBron is doing good work and she is open to visiting his new school. 
• Trump's in-laws, Melania's parents, become US citizens. They took advantage of "chain migration", an immigration program that Trump decries and wants to eliminate. Can you spell h-y-p-o-c-r-i-t-e?
• Rep. Chris Collins (R-N.Y.), an early and staunch Trump supporter, is charged with insider trading.
• China and US impose 25% tariffs on $18 billion of additional goods. Chinese tariffs are on cars and energy.
• Omarosa Manigault Newman's new book, Unhinged: An Insider Account of the Trump White House, alleges that Trump is racist, unqualified, narcissistic, misogynist, and a bigot. She also has recordings to back up some claims in the book. Uncomfortable.
• 8/15 - Trump admits in a Wall Street Journal interview that he revoked John Brennan's security clearance because of his involvement in the Russian investigation. No security reasons, just spite, and revenge.  
• Trump's military parade has been postponed until next year or maybe never. Projected cost had ballooned to over $90 million.
• 8/21 - Former Trump lawyer and associate Michael Cohen pleads guilty to tax and bank fraud and campaign finance violations. Says he paid off women on Trump's orders. 
• 8/21 - Trump's former campaign manager, Paul Manafort, is found guilty on eight counts. Tax evasion, bank fraud, and not reporting a foreign bank account.
• 8/25 - A federal judge strikes down most of Trump's executive orders attempting to make it easier to fire government employees and weaken their unions.
• White House counsel Donald McGahn to leave the administration this fall. 
• 8/31 - W. Samuel Patten pleaded guilty to one count of violating the Foreign Agents Registration Act for failing to register with the Justice Department. He also admitted that he steered an illegal $50K donation from a Ukrainian businessman to the Trump inauguration.

wjh

The Trump Script

As allegations of wrongdoing by Trump, his campaign, and his administration become public, a script for dealing with these allegations has emerged. In general, the script follows the following steps:

1. Negative story or allegation comes to light
2. Complete denial
3. Claim "Fake News"
4. Attack the accusers
5. Claim "Fake News"
6. Less emphatic denial
7. Claim "Fake News"
8. Attack the accusers
9. Claim "Fake News"
10. Discredit the investigators
11. Claim "Fake News"
12. Maybe the accusation is partially true
13. Claim "witch hunt"
14. Discredit the accusers
15. Claim "witch hunt"
16. Admit the accusations after corroborating evidence comes to light
17. Offer confusing reasons and alternative stories
18. Claim "witch hunt"
19. Fully admit the accusation
20. Contend that the actions in the accusation are not a crime
21. Continue to claim "witch hunt"
22. Continue to discredit accusers and investigators
23. Create a new crisis as a diversion

Not every step is invoked for every allegation. Sometimes steps are repeated multiple times. These steps are carried out via Twitter, Trump statements, Sarah Sanders, Kellyanne Conway, Rudy Giuliani, or numerous other administration apologists.

It is a pattern that has been repeated often enough that even Trump supporters should recognize. 

Every negative story or report about Trump, his administration, and the GOP is not "fake news". In fact, very few from the mainstream media have been even erroneous let alone fake. 

While I don't pretend to know what the next big story or allegations will be, I can confidently predict that the above "wash, rinse, repeat" scenario will be employed. 

wjh

Winning - July 2018

Keeping track of the GOP and Trump Administration:

• 7/3 - Trump's "Pakistani mystery man" and Democrats cleared of conspiracy and illegal information access. Trump had already decided they were guilty. 
• Scott Pruitt's aides reveal more details of his excessive spending and management abuse at EPA. King of the Swamp.
• 7/5 - Corrupt EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt resigns, finally.
• 7/6 - Trump starts the trade war with China.
• China retaliates with tariffs on US goods.
• 7/6 - Russia imposes tariffs on certain US goods. 
• Trump's Mar-a-Lago applies for 61 foreign worker visas. Guess you can't find cooks and servers in the US.
• North Korea contradicts Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's assessment of the denuclearization negotiations. He says good, they say regrettable.
• White House legislative affairs director, Mark Short, resigns.
• Trump completely botches the Helsinki news conference with Putin. His "would - wouldn't" explanation is laughable. 
• Appeals Court nominee Ryan Bounds withdrawn because of writings that ridiculed multiculturalism and groups concerned with racial issues.  
• There is a recording between Trump and Michael Cohen discussing payoffs to Karen McDougal. You know, the Playboy model and mistress who Trump knows nothing about.
• Trump wants to revoke security clearance for his dissenters. Very dictatorish behavior. 
• The Department of Agriculture will pay farmers hurt by Trump's tariffs $12 billion. "Tariffs are the greatest!"
• Ivanka shuts down her fashion brand.
• Putin's visit to the US pushed out to next year, after elections.
• Federal judge allows emoluments suit against Trump to go forward. 
• North Korea continues to enrich nuclear material and build ICBMs according to satellite evidence. This despite Trump's agreement with Kim Jong-un when he said Pyongyang was "no longer a Nuclear Threat." 

wjh

Mueller Time - Second Quarter 2018

On 05/17/2017, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein appointed Robert Mueller as Special Council. Mueller was to investigate any possible collusion between the Trump presidential campaign or other Americans and the Russian government regarding the 2016 elections. The investigation was not limited to that issue and any crimes discovered while investigating were also subject to prosecution and/or being turned over to the Justice Department or state prosecutors.

A partial list of second quarter 2018 news about the investigation. The Mueller team remains remarkably tight-lipped about their activities. Most information comes from public court filings. 

• 4/3 - Alex van der Zwaan, a Dutch lawyer associated with Manafort and Gates, is sentenced to 30 days in jail for lying to the FBI and destroying evidence. 
• Mueller produces memo showing that Deputy Attorney General Rodney J. Rosenstein authorized Mueller to pursue allegations that Manafort colluded with Russia in 2016. 
• 4/9 - The FBI executed a search warrant at Michael Cohen's office, home, and hotel room. They seize documents related to Stormy Daniels, Karen McDougal, The National Enquirer, and possible bank and wire fraud. The search warrants were based on evidence provided by Mueller's team although the investigation is by the US Attorney Office for the Southern District of New York. 
• A federal judge dismissed Manafort’s DC civil suit against Mueller’s authority.
• Michael Cohen's business partner, Evgeny Naumovich Freidman, known as the taxi king, agrees to cooperate with prosecutors in exchange for a plea deal. 
• 6/4 - Mueller accuses Manafort of witness tampering.
• 6/8 - Mueller files witness tampering charges against Manafort and Russian Konstantin Kilimnik. 
• 6/15 - Manafort's $10 million bail is revoked he must now go to jail until his trial in September.
• Speaking of $10 million, new evidence shows Manafort had a $10 M loan from a Russian oligarch. Cozy
• 6/26 - A federal judge in Virginia ruled that Mueller's tax and bank fraud case against Manafort can proceed.  

wjh

Winning - June 2018

• 6/1 - Summit with North Korea on 6/12 back on again.
• Trump uninvites the Philadelphia Eagles to the White House. Most players weren't going to attend anyway. 
• EPA staff members performed personal tasks for Scott Pruitt including planning vacations, finding DC housing, and purchasing a mattress. More swampy behavior by Pruitt. 
• 6/4 - Mueller accuses Manafort of witness tampering. 
• 6/8 - Mueller files witness tampering charges against Paul Manafort and Russian Konstantin Kilimnik.
• President Trump dictated Donald Trump Jr.'s response to the New York Times article concerning the Trump Tower meeting with Russians. First, it was denied, then changed to fatherly advice, now full authorship. One of those accounts may be the truth, but maybe not. The content of the response was a lie. 
• Mexico imposes tariffs on about $3 billion of US goods including whiskey, pork, and several agricultural products.  
• House Speaker Paul Ryan says no evidence FBI spied on Trump campaign. 
• Trump refuses to sign the G7 resolution that he previously agreed to. Seems to be because he didn't like a statement by Trudeau. Calls the Canadian Prime Minister "dishonest and weak".
• AG Jeff Sessions rules domestic or gang violence is not grounds for asylum. 
• Trump lies daily that the separation of children from their parents at the border is because of a Democrat law. There is no such law, it is a Trump administration policy. He also admits that it is part of his strategy to get the wall funded.
• Ivanka and Jared Kushner had outside income of at least $82 million in 2017. Ivanka made $3.9 million from Trump International Hotel in DC. Her company also recently got 13 Chinese trademarks. Swampy & conflicty.
• 6/14 - The New York Attorney General sues the Donald J. Trump Foundation, Donald, Don Jr., Eric, and Ivanka.
• 6/15 - Paul Manafort's bail is revoked. He must now go to jail until trial. 
• 6/15 - Trump imposes tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods. China retaliates in kind on agriculture, auto, and energy goods. 
• Trump flip-flops on supporting insurance coverage for preexisting conditions.
• 6/17 - Roger Stone now admits to meeting with a Russian national in May 2016.  
• 6/20 - Trump signs an executive order to change his policy to separate immigrant children from their parents. A policy that he said was not a policy but a law. One that could not be reversed by an executive order. 
• Michael Cohen resigns as deputy chair of the RNC finance committee. 
• 6/22 - EU tariffs on $3.2 billion of US goods go into effect. 
• 6/25 - Harley-Davidson to shift some production to Europe to avoid tariffs. 
• 6/25 - Federal Judge in Virginia says that the Manafort bank and tax fraud case can proceed. 
• 6/27 - GOP House fails again to pass an immigration bill despite Trump's support for the bill. No money for the Wall.

wjh

TrumpTruths

Since Donald Trump first announced his candidacy for president, we have entered a new era. There are many parts to this new era. One of them is the normalization of lies by the president, his administration, and the GOP in general. I'm not talking about the normal political hyperbole, exaggerations, opinions, selective shading of facts and statistics. I am talking about bald face lies. Things that can be proven wrong. The dawning of the post-truth era. I call these TrumpTruths. 

Trump has always had a very casual relationship with the truth. That was not much of a problem when he was a private businessman, when he was the host of a "reality" TV show, or when he was on Howard Stern's radio show bragging about his sexual conquests. It also was only a minor problem during the first part of his campaign for the presidency, when no one took him seriously. It became a problem when he won the GOP nomination and has escalated now that he is president.

The lies started even before his candidacy when he insisted that President Obama was born outside the United States and was not a citizen. He also hinted that Obama was a Muslim. On the very first day of his administration, he insisted that his inauguration crowd was the largest in history. Something not corroborated by the Park Service, DC police, or photo evidence. 

As of May 31, 2018, the unofficial count of Trump lies is 3,251 in 467 days. An average of 6½ per day. There were 250 in May 2018, 8/day. At his 5/29 rally, there were 35. In one hour on 6/20, he spewed 29 lies. Many of those 3,251 lies are repeats. Trump's strategy seems to be if you tell a lie often enough, it becomes the truth. 

Listed below are some of his many lies. Some important, some not, but all untrue.  

• Trump claimed that his State of the Union address had the largest TV audience in history. Not even close. 
  
• He passed the biggest tax cut in US history. There have been at least six larger tax cuts since 1945. The biggest by Reagan in 1981, the last larger one in 2012 by Obama.  
  
• Mexico will pay for his "big, beautiful" border wall. Yet, he keeps asking Congress for funding. 
• The trade deficit with Mexico is $100 billion/year. It was actually $64 billion in 2017.
• Trump said that Sayfullo Habibullaevic Saipov brought 22 relatives into the United States through "chain migration." He is the immigrant, with a green card, who ran over eight people in New York City. There is no record that he brought a single relative to this country.
• Lottery migration. He constantly states that the foreign countries pick their worst people to send to the US. In fact, the foreign country has no involvement with the lottery immigration (US Diversity Visa lottery) program. Individuals apply to the US State Department. They are vetted by the US and then wait to possibly be chosen. It takes years.
• Talked about what a great letter he got from Kim Jong Un but refused to divulge what was in it. Then at the end of the interview admitted he hadn't read it yet. A completely unnecessary lie by a pathological liar. 
  
• “We've just secured -- you've read all about it -- a $700 billion, largest ever amount of money to support our great war fighters.” It is not even the largest recent military budget. Obama budgeted $710 million in 2011 and $714M in 2010.
• “We have now the lowest number of ships that we've had since World War I.” There are currently 283 Navy ships. There were 279 in 2007. Just to clarify, 283 is a larger number than 279.
• “Very soon you're going to get to 355 beautiful ships. 355.” The 355 number was proposed by the Navy in 2016 before Trump took office. The current schedule is to have 355 ships by 2050. Is that "very soon"?
• “We just got you a big pay raise. First time in 10 years. We got you a big pay increase. First time in over 10 years. I fought for you. That was the hardest one to get, but you never had a chance of losing.” Trump was referring to military raises. According to the Department of Defense, active members of the military have received a raise every year since 1983.
• “Clapper has now admitted that there was Spying in my campaign. Large dollars were paid to the Spy, far beyond normal. Starting to look like one of the biggest political scandals in U.S. history. SPYGATE - a terrible thing!” In fact, Clapper said the exact opposite and there is no record that Halper, the alleged "spy", was paid.
• “In the history of our country, no President -- whether it's four years, eight years, or sixteen years, in one case -- has ever passed more regulation cuts.” Unverified. There has never been a president who served 16 years. History is hard.
• “Small business optimism has never, ever been higher, according to polls and charts.” According to the National Federation of Independent Business, there have been 20 times it has been higher
• “We have thousands of judges and they need thousands of more judges. The whole system is corrupt.” Trump was speaking about immigration judges. In fact, there are 334 judges. Again, 334 is less than "thousands".
• “[The stock market] is up almost 40 percent since Election Day.” At the time of this statement, the stock market was up 32%. Rounding up to 40% is a stretch. The market is down in 2018.
• “We've spent $7 trillion -- can you believe that -- $7 trillion in the Middle East. Right out the window.” From 2001 to 2014 the US spent $1.6 trillion in Iraq and Afghanistan. 
• “They wanted it so badly -- San Diego. They wanted it so badly. And I said, you know, if we build it, we will lose a big constituency, because there won't be anybody saying, "We want the wall." But we had to build it. So I know they're very happy about it.” San Diego does not support construction of the wall; even the Republican mayor is opposed. The construction near San Diego is actually a repair of the fence. No "wall" construction has been done.
• “And I'll tell you, the people in Michigan very much appreciate it. It's a big deal. [Chrysler is] leaving Mexico; going to Michigan.” Chrysler is moving one production line from a Mexican plant to an existing Michigan plant. The Mexican plant remains open.
• Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind) "never sponsored a bill that has become a law.” In fact, Trump signed a bill sponsored by Donnelly.

This is just a sample of TrumpTruths, there are many more but you get the idea. Trump has his own version of the world. A world where facts don't matter. I don't know whether Trump believes the lies he spouts or is ignorant of the truth. I suspect it is a mixture. Neither reason is acceptable or flattering to Trump. TrumpTruths are a bane on our society and a danger to our country. Most of us were taught that lying is wrong. Apparently, Trump was not taught that lesson. 

Unfortunately, many Trump supporters don't care. That may be the saddest and most troubling development of this new post-truth era.  

wjh

Winning - May 2018

• California sues Trump administration over car emission standards.
• Two of Scott Pruitt's cronies, Albert “Kell” Kelly and Pasquale “Nino” Perrotta, resign from EPA because of swampy behavior. 
• Has and had do have different meanings. Words and tense matter especially when dealing with nuclear issues.
• Trump lawyer Ty Cobb resigns.
• Rudy Giuliani, another Trump lawyer, says Donnie repaid Michael Cohen, in installments, for the $130K payoff to Stormy Daniels. Trump has denied any knowledge of the payoff and Cohen has said he was never repaid. Several different stories. Are any true? 
• Now Trump agrees that Cohen was reimbursed for the Stormy Daniels hush payment. 
• The next day Trump says Giuliani has facts wrong but gives no details or clarification. 
• 5/16 - Trump discloses a reimbursement to Michael Cohen of more than $100K for payment to a third party.
• A New York judge has ruled that the condo board may remove the name Trump Place from the building. 
• 5/8 - Trump withdraws the US from the Iranian nuclear deal. 
• The Senate Intelligence Committee concludes that the Russian interference in the 2016 election favored Trump. 
• 5/17 - A New York appeals court denies Trump's request for a stay in the Summer Zervos defamation case.
• 5/18 - GOP House fails to pass Farm Bill.
• 5/18 - Another school shooting. This time in Santa Fe, Texas. Eight students, two teachers killed.
• Michael Cohen’s business partner, Evgeny A. Freidman, a Russian immigrant, agrees to cooperate with prosecutors.
• A federal judge ruled that Trump can not block Twitter users who are critical of him.
• 5/24 - Trump cancels the nuclear summit with Kim Jong-un. Maybe.
• The Justice Department and Homeland Security policies require illegal immigrant's children be separated from their parents. This is a Trump policy, not a law.
• Trump decides to save Chinese telecom company ZTE over objections of Congress, the Defense Department, and the intelligence community. Why? ZTE violated US sanctions multiple times.
• Trump imposes metal tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and Europe. All will retaliate with tariffs on US goods. Can you say trade war?
• The American Federation of Government Employees sues the Trump administration over recent executive orders.

wjh