Way back in the dark ages the world had a nuclear showdown. Thankfully that did not end in a nuclear war. I am referring to the Cuban Missile Crisis. It happened in October 1962. The whole crisis lasted about two weeks. In the end, the Russians backed down, we compromised, and the world let out a collective sigh of relief. That outcome was very much in doubt right up until it happened.
Russia and the United States, both nuclear powers, had been engaged in a cold war since the end of World War II. The tensions kept building until this 1962 event. Briefly, the crisis was preceded by the Bay of Pigs Invasion in 1961 and the deployment of US missiles in Italy and Turkey. Cuban dictator, Fidel Castro, requested that Russia deploy missiles in Cuba to protect against another invasion. USSR Premier Nikita Khrushchev finally agreed. US reconnaissance planes confirmed that missile facilities were being constructed in Cuba. At that point, the US established a blockade on any offensive weapons entering Cuba. There were Soviet ships on their way to Cuba when the blockade was put into effect. No one knew what would happen when the US Navy ships tried to stop the Soviet ships.
After days of very tense and intense negotiations, the Soviets agreed to dismantle and return the missiles to the Soviet Union. Their ships turned around. The United States agreed not to invade Cuba. They also removed the missiles from Italy and Turkey.
It was a real crisis with Khrushchev and President Kennedy staring each other down. Who would blink first? I lived in Florida at the time of the Cuban Missle Crisis and it was a nervous time. Military reserves were called up, troops and ships were very visibly deployed to the area. Jacksonville, where I was, had three Navy bases at the time. Two Naval Air Stations and a port. We figured at least some of those Cuban missiles would be aimed at us.
Thankfully cooler heads and logic triumphed and a devastating war was averted. Kennedy and Khrushchev came to a reasonable agreement. As an aside, because of this crisis, the hotline, the red phone, between Washington and Moscow was established. The Cold War has ebbed and flowed, but there have been no close calls with Russia since then.
So fast forward to the summer of 2017 and it's beginning to feel a little like the fall of 1962.
Now it appears that we are at least approaching another missile crisis. This time between North Korea and the United States. The North Koreans continue to test intercontinental ballistic missiles and atomic weapons. They are either already or very close to being able to deliver an atomic warhead to the continental United States.
President Trump insists that that is unacceptable and there will be dire consequences unless North Korea stops the missile and atomic testing. The United States has unilaterally imposed sanctions on North Korea and the UN has also imposed sanctions. With almost every new test, the sanctions have been ratcheted up. Mostly to no avail. With each new round of sanctions, Kim Jong-un, North Korean dictator, becomes more belligerent.
Let's forget the missiles and nukes for a moment. North Korea has thousands of conventional weapons that are aimed at South Korea. They can also attack Japan and other Southeast Asian US allies. Millions could be killed even without the use of nuclear weapons. It doesn't look like there are any good options to ending this crisis.
Right now we do not know exactly what North Korea's capabilities are. Accurate intelligence of that very closed and isolated society is difficult and we have been mostly wrong so far about North Korea's capabilities and the timeline of their advances.
Both Trump and Kim Jong-un are exchanging threats and ultimatums. There don't appear to be any diplomatic talks taking place. Although all 15 UN Security Council country's voted in favor of the latest sanctions, Kim Jong-un seems to have singled out the United States as the primary enemy.
In response to the latest North Korean tests and rhetoric, Trump said: "They will be met with the fire and fury and frankly power, the likes of which this world has never seen before." Another case of undercutting Secretary of State Tillerson who is encouraging diplomatic talks.
Both sides are rattling their sabers and talking (yelling) at each other, not with each other. That is what is most scary to this old guy who lived through the Cuban Missile Crisis of the 1960's.
During that Cuban conflict, there were direct talks before during and after the crisis between the USSR and the US. The leaders of both countries were stable and experienced politicians. They both were primarily concerned with the welfare of their countries and the world. Yes, Khrushchev was a tyrant and had done brutal things to those who opposed him, but he was a staunch nationalist. He wanted the USSR and Mother Russia to continue on. Kennedy had a huge ego and wanted to win at almost all costs, but not at the cost of a nuclear war. Both men had been involved in World War II. They knew the horrors of even a conventional war. They had both seen the devastation of the nuclear attacks on Japan.
This time around, we have two leaders who have egos the size of a continent, impulsive and erratic personalities, knee jerk reactions to criticism or confrontation, little or no experience in their position, no sense or knowledge of history, no diplomatic skills and most of all, no inclinations to give an inch or appear to be the least bit weak.
I'm not feeling real good about this whole situation. The main players on both sides scare me. There is no such thing as a small nuclear conflict. In the case of even a conventional conflict, Seoul, South Korea, could have hundreds of thousands or millions of casualties and economic and property devastation. This is not a fake news, video game situation. Let's hope that more grounded and capable advisors can temper the actions of these two leaders. If not, I fear one or both will be reaching for that big red button. The whole world will suffer.
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