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Thursday, February 1, 2018

SOTU 2018 TV Ratings


... and other fairy tales.

Trump tweeted on February 1st - "Thank you for all of the nice compliments and reviews on the State of the Union speech. 45.6 million people watched, the highest number in history. beat every other Network, for the first time ever, with 11.7 million people tuning in. Delivered from the heart!"

For once, he actually got the raw numbers close to right. Unfortunately, he completely blew the ranking. According to the math I learned, 6th place does not count as the "highest number". We have seen this dyslexia on Trump's part before. When he looks at two or more numbers, whichever number is attributed to him is the largest, most, best, etc. When he looks at the numbers 68, 53, 51.7, 48, 45.8, and 45.6 it is obvious that 45.6 is the highest.

Let's say the Neilson rating service made a slight error. Then maybe you could make a case that Trump could leap ahead of Clinton's 1994 numbers. He would then be in 5th place, still not quite 1st. Trump would need way more than even those three million illegal voters to get past Bush's 2002 or 2003 ratings. He'd need about 16½ million more viewers.

Why does Trump consistently lie about things that can be easily checked? In a White House "clarification", they stated that Trump was referring to cable news network viewers. Yet, he used the 45.6 million total TV viewer number in his tweet. This just amounts to the normal White House spin and damage control. It is a fulltime job for several people. 

The 45.6 viewers were spread over 12 networks. Fox News did have the highest viewership during the speech. Congratulations to them. The next highest rated networks were NBC (7.1 million) and CBS (7 million). You can see all the ratings in the PolitiFact article.

It seems only right that Trump would vastly exaggerate the ratings of a speech that was full of lies and misrepresentations. Guess you can't teach an old dog new tricks, it's in his DNA.

wjh

Fact checking the State of the Union 2018



  1. “Since the election, we have created 2.4 million new jobs, including 200,000 new jobs in manufacturing alone.” Since election day? Since when do president-elects create jobs. The real number is 1.8 million since the inauguration. The slowest job growth since 2010.
  2. “After years of wage stagnation, we are finally seeing rising wages.” Actually, wage increases in 2017 were the lowest in the last five years.
  3. “African American unemployment stands at the lowest rate ever recorded, and Hispanic American unemployment has also reached the lowest levels in history.”  This is actually true, but during the 2016 campaign, Trump continually said the unemployment statistics from the Bureau of Labor were false. Now he embraces them. The unemployment rate has been declining since 2010.
  4.   “Unemployment claims have hit a 45-year low.” Actually, it was a six week low. Although unemployment numbers are good overall.
  5. “The stock market has smashed one record after another, gaining $8 trillion in value. That is great news for Americans’ 401(k), retirement, pension and college savings accounts.” Again, that is a number since the election, not the inauguration. Still, good news. In fact, the US stock market is lagging behind the global markets and the 2017 percent increase (25.5%) is lower than the 2009 increase (33.3%), Obama's first year in office. Remember, if you take credit for the market increases, you also have to own the decreases. The market was down the day of the SOTU.
  6. “Just as I promised the American people from this podium 11 months ago, we enacted the biggest tax cuts and reform in American history.”  It's actually the 8th largest tax cut. Reagan holds the record and two Obama tax cuts were larger.
  7. “Our massive tax cuts provide tremendous relief for the middle class and small businesses.” The tax cut does help the middle class until the cuts expire. Most of the cuts benefit the rich and large businesses.
  8. “We slashed the business tax rate from 35 percent all the way down to 21 percent, so American companies can compete and win against anyone in the world. These changes alone are estimated to increase average family income by more than $4,000.” Independent economists claim the numbers don't add up. A $4K increase per family would be more than all the corporate taxes collected. Estimates are more like $1,600 per average household. That's pretty good, why lie and inflate the number?
  9. “We have ended the war on American energy — and we have ended the war on beautiful clean coal. We are now an exporter of energy to the world.” First, there is no such thing as "clean coal" and certainly not "beautiful clean coal". What he did do is repeal the Clean Power Plan. We have always exported energy, but we are not a "net" exporter of energy. 
  10. “Many car companies are now building and expanding plants in the United States — something we have not seen for decades. Chrysler is moving a major plant from Mexico to Michigan.” Fiat Chrysler planned that new plant before the 2016 election.
  11. “The third pillar ends the visa lottery — a program that randomly hands out green cards without any regard for skill, merit or the safety of our people.” This "lottery" is administered by our State Department, not the foreign countries. Applicants must have at least a high school diploma or equivalent or two years work experience. They are vetted and given medical tests.
  12. “The fourth and final pillar protects the nuclear family by ending chain migration. Under the current broken system, a single immigrant can bring in virtually unlimited numbers of distant relatives.”  Only citizens can bring in more than spouses and unmarried children. Even at that, these are not automatic immigration visas. There are currently about four million on the waiting list.
  13. “In recent weeks, two terrorist attacks in New York were made possible by the visa lottery and chain migration. In the age of terrorism, these programs present risks we can no longer afford.”  Technically correct. Two immigrant terrorists out of the thousands who have come into the country via these programs are statistically insignificant. 
  14. “We are proud that we do more than any other country to help the needy, the struggling and the underprivileged all over the world.” True in total dollars but as a percentage of GDP, the US ranks 22nd out of 29 wealthy countries. 
There were also a few things that Trump failed to mention. Approximately ⅓ of Puerto Rico is still without power and FEMA is ending emergency supply shipments. He also didn't mention that all those Carrier jobs he "saved" are now going to Mexico after all. Russia is still trying to influence our elections.  

To Trump's credit, he stayed on script and boringly read the teleprompter. He also clapped at his own statements. He promised bipartisan cooperation. Let's see how that works out.

wjh 

Winning - January 2018

More in the continuing saga of Trump's and the GOP's winning ways in January 2018. A partial list:
  • In his first year in office, Trump has made over 2,000 false or misleading claims. A new record. Trump certainly is the BEST and MOST prolific liar.
  • Trump claims that his nuclear button is bigger than Kim Jong Un's. Two children trading insults.
  • Trump disbands the Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity. Only two meetings, no results reported. All collected data will be destroyed. Trump still lost the popular vote by three million.
  • There seems to be a breakup coming in the Trump-Bannon bromance. What a shame.
  • “Steve Bannon has nothing to do with me or my Presidency,” Trump's statement said. “When he was fired, he not only lost his job, he lost his mind.”
  • In a binding ruling, the independent Federal Energy Regulatory Commission unanimously rejected a proposal by Energy Secretary Rick Perry that would have boosted coal and nuclear energy over natural gas and renewables in competitive electricity markets.
  • The NC Congressional District map was ruled unconstitutionally gerrymandered by Republicans. 
  • A Federal judge rules that DACA can’t end while a lawsuit is pending. 
  • US Ambassador to Panama, John Feeley, resigns over differences with Trump's administration.
  • The decision by Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke to exempt Florida from the offshore drilling expansion draws ire from other state governors, both Republican and Democratic.
  • No one who was in the meeting with Trump originally denied that he referred to several, mostly Black or Brown, countries as "shithole countries". They have either confirmed his language or implausibly "don't recall". 
  • After originally not being able to recall what Trump said about immigration, GOP Senators Cotton and Perdue now "remember" that Trump did not say shithole countries. I wonder who helped them remember.
  • After further review, some of Trump's minions are insisting that Trump didn't say "shithole" but really said "shithouse". What is the difference? It is still a racist comment. 
  • Trump fails to publicly respond to the Hawaii attack false alarm. No leadership, no concern. Too busy playing golf.
  • Steve Bannon is subpoenaed by Mueller to testify before the grand jury. Later agrees to an interview with Mueller's team in lieu of the grand jury. 
  • Nine of 12 members on the National Park System Advisory Board quit on Monday (1/15) "out of frustration that Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke had refused to meet with them."
  • Attorneys General from 21 states have filed suit against the Federal Communications Commission repeal of net neutrality. 
  • Three hotels and three apartment/condo buildings have removed the Trump name. Others wanting to but the Trump Organization has threatened legal action.  
  • The government shuts down on the anniversary of Trump's inauguration. 
  • Attorney General Jeff Sessions questioned by Mueller's team. 
  • Steve Wynn resigns as RNC Finance Chairman after sexual misconduct allegations. 
  • Newly appointed CDC director, Brenda Fitzgerald, resigns due to her financial investments including tobacco companies.
  • South Carolina Republican Representative Trey Gowdy, Mr. Benghazi, plans to retire. 
wjh