Tweeter-in-Chief

We all know that Donald Trump is an unconventional politician and will be an unconventional president. That is not necessarily a bad thing nor is it necessarily a good thing. It depends on what he does with that unconventional behavior.

This post is about the power of Twitter or other social media in the hands of the president. I won't even touch on the potential for problems related to foreign policy whether intentional or by accident. Let's just concentrate on the domestic business ramifications today. I'm sure I'll revisit the potential for real international effects in the future  

It appears that Mr. Trump is unaware or doesn't care about the damage or boost his tweets can do. He has tweeted about several corporations as president-elect and prsident. Those tweets have had a significant impact on the stock prices of those companies. At least for the time being, the market reacts to Trump's tweets. While I'm not overly concerned with the negative financial impact on the fat-cat stockholders or corporate officers, there are thousand of small investors also affected. People's 401k's, pension funds, index funds and small individual investors take the hit too. 

I find this disturbing on a couple of levels. Much of what Trump tweets is not based on fact or anything real. They appear to be random thoughts and knee-jerk reactions. The other concern is the opportunity for abuse. Trump, bad actors who have access to his Twitter account or hackers can use this influence to make fortunes in the stock market. It appears that if any company or corporate CEO says or does anything Trump dislikes, there will be a nasty tweet. Likewise, if someone or some corporation strokes his ego, they get glowing praise.

With Trump's ability to sway the markets and his global holdings, I see a very good four years for his family and cronies. Real or imagined conflicts of interest will come up almost daily. 

Trump International Hotel

Trump has not sufficiently separated himself from his businesses and interests to eliminate the likelihood that his statements affect his holdings and income. His immediate family is still running those businesses. It isn't feasible to think that a little company talk won't come up during family gatherings. What most influences his actions? Is he first and foremost president of the United States, president of Trump Organization or president of the Trump family? Cronies and business associates also figure into the equation.

Trump has kept his old personal Twitter account @realDonaldTrump and inherited the official presidential account @POTUS. Since the inauguration, he has used both accounts. It will be interesting to see whether he uses the two accounts differently. 

Tweeting to communicate to the American people is fine. Tweeting to bolster or punish corporations or individuals is not. Tweeting to enhance and enrich your brand may be criminal.

This is just one more change, among a host of them, to the landscape of how our president goes about governing the country. 

Buckle up.

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Selective States' Rights

Since the beginning of our country, there has been a debate about state's rights. Who is in charge of what? Does it fall under the federal government's jurisdiction or is it up to the individual states? Many of the Supreme Court cases and decisions deal with this division of power. Also, like almost everything else, the pendulum of popular sentiment and court decisions sways back and forth between the national and state governments.

The cornerstone of the debate is laid out in the tenth amendment of the US Constitution. 

Like most of our constitution, the tenth amendment is open to interpretation and boy has it been interpreted. We all have selective states' rights opinions. If states are doing something we don't agree with, we think the federal government should rectify the wrong. If the federal laws or policies are not to our liking, we believe our individual state should have control over that issue. It has been, is, and will be an ongoing issue. 

As we transition into the Trump era, this debate will intensify. We are going from a more liberal Democratic administration to a more conservative Republican administration. In general, Democrats lean more toward federal control and Republicans favor state control. These tendencies are by no means absolute or even consistent. Some examples would be Republicans generally believe access to abortions should be regulated by the states while Democrats believe the federal government should regulate consistent laws throughout the nation. On the other hand, many Republicans think drug laws are a federal responsibility but Democrats think states should have the right to at least legalize marijuana. A current dispute between cities and states and feds involves sanctuary cities/states. The new president and most Republicans think that federal immigration laws should all be vigorously enforced by local law enforcement agencies. Many cities and Democrats think this is a local matter. Here in Texas, we have a rift between our Republican governor, lieutenant governor and Republican controlled legislature and individual cities and counties. Texas is one of those states that raises hell whenever they think the federal government is infringing on states right. At the same time, the state government has no qualms about dictating to local governments. 

The reality is that if you think the federal laws, policies, and enforcement on an issue are in sync with your beliefs then that is just fine. If they are in opposition to your preferences then you want your state to be in control, provided your state government is more in sync with your beliefs. And of course, it works in the opposite way too. 

So, what changes can we expect in the near term with a new administration? More of the same. They will not hesitate to advocate federal laws and policies when it suits their purpose and views. They will also advocate states rights when the current federal laws and judicial rulings don't line up with what they want. 

A perfect example of the contradictions and hypocrisy happened the week of February 19, 2017. On Wednesday, Trump signed an executive order rescinding an Obama order protecting transgender students. Trump said the restroom issue should be decided by the states. On Thursday, he directed federal law enforcement agencies to enforce federal marijuana laws even when they were in conflict with more lenient state and local laws. It should be obvious that the current administration is against transgender bathroom equality and also against the use of marijuana. Please, do not smoke a joint in the wrong bathroom. That would probably draw a life sentence or the death penalty.

The one thing we can be sure of is that things will change. Some things now under federal control will revert to the states. Just like some things now done by the states will be taken over by the feds. The changes will come about by executive orders and policies, state and federal legislation, and court decisions. These forces are rarely in agreement.

The ability to write and enforce the laws gives a government entity power. We all know politicians want power and the purse strings. So, the tug-of-war will continue. 

Where do you stand on states rights? Like me, I'm sure it depends on the specific issue.

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Another "Winning" Week

I wonder whether Trump is tired of "winning" yet? So far his administration has pretty much been a cluster-fuck. In just this past week these setbacks have occurred. 

• National Security Advisor Michael Flynn was fired or resigned. Officially because he lost the trust of Trump and the administration. We will have to wait for the real reasons. Was it really a matter of trust or was it illegal activities?
• Trump's choice to replace Flynn as his National Security Advisor, retired Vice Adm. Robert Harward, turned down the job. According to reports, there was a conflict on staffing the Security Council.
• Another candidate, retired General and ex-CIA Director David Petraeus, was supposedly eliminated because he said ‎”Whoever it is that would agree to take that position certainly should do so with some very, very significant assurances that he or she would have authorities over the personnel of the organization -- that there would be a commitment to a disciplined process and procedures,”. Basically, the same reason Harward withdrew his name. 
• Trump's nominee for Secretary of Labor, Andy Puzder, withdraws as the nominee amid growing questions about his business record and past personal issues. The personal issues include allegations of domestic abuse and his hiring of an undocumented worker in his home. 
• The Office of Government Ethics (OGE) recommending disciplinary action against and an investigation of Presidential Counselor Kellyanne Conway for plugging Ivanka Trump's fashion line on TV. 
• At his Friday news conference, Trump made a false statement about his Electoral College margin of victory. A reporter called him on it during that same news conference. Trump then tried to clarify his statement but that too was a lie. He then said somebody gave him that information and he really didn't know. The buck stops somewhere else.
• Numerous reports and allegations about contact with Russia by the Trump campaign. Nothing substantiated yet, but plenty of smoke. 
• False statements about immigrants and problems in Sweden. "You look at what's happening last night in Sweden," Trump said. "Sweden. Who would believe this? Sweden. They took in large numbers. They're having problems like they never thought possible." One response from Sweden was "Sweden? Terror attack? What has he been smoking? Questions abound," former Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt wrote on Twitter. Trump blames a story on Fox News. Of course, Fox does not broadcast fake news according to Trump, so this presents a small problem. Trump building winning relations and trust with foreign nations. 
• On the Trump business front, Sears and Kmart dropped Trump Home products from their online shopping sites. Maybe not a big deal, but certainly not a win for Trump. More stores continue to drop Ivanka's line.

One thing for sure, I'm tired of the "whining". You won Donald, you are the president. At this point, it doesn't matter if you won by the biggest margin in history (you didn't) or by a single vote (you didn't) or somewhere in between (you did). The campaign is over, time to govern.

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Goodbye Michael Flynn

It took less than a month for the first member of Trump's administration and inner circle to leave under suspicious circumstances. National Security Advisor Michael Flynn has resigned. The resignation is tied to allegations that he has lied about conversations he had with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak prior to Trump's inauguration. Flynn initially admitted that he had the conversations but apparently lied about the content of those phone calls. His story changed several times during the inquiries. 

It is not clear yet whether Flynn resigned of his own volition, was forced to resign or was actually fired (You're Fired?). It is also not clear whether the resignation was brought on by improper and possibly illegal discussions with the Russians or because Flynn lied to White House officials, particularly Vice President Pence about it. Pence had gone on the Sunday morning political shows and defended Flynn. Embarrassing.

This is at least the second time Flynn has been relieved of command. Then Lieutenant General Flynn was encouraged to retire a year earlier than scheduled. That was not because he was doing a wonderful job.

Between his military service and joining the Trump Train, he was apparently investigated by the Army concerning his relationship with Russia. Do you see a pattern here? 

Flynn has a history of being a conspiracy theorist and spreader of fake news. During his later military days, they were referred to as "Flynn facts". That seems ironic since Trump and the Trumpettes are always complaining about fake news by the media. 

I am not and never was a Michael Flynn fan. I was concerned when he was appointed National Security Advisor. Besides the "Flynn facts", I always thought of him as one of those hardass conservative law and order guys. The kind who wants to harshly punish others but does not think the rules apply to them. Seems these incidents prove he feels above the law.

I'm not sure how this will turn out. Will Trump appoint a competent replacement or an even worse person to fill the top spot on the National Security Council? Will Steve Bannon take complete control?

It appears that there will be ongoing investigations into Flynn's activities. Some of them may prove to be criminal. Stay tuned.

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Alternative Reality

During the week beginning Sunday, 2/5/2017, Trump and his Trumpettes have floated the following false statements: 

• "Any negative polls are fake news, just like the CNN, ABC, NBC polls in the election. Sorry, people want border security and extreme vetting." (Trump tweet)
• "The failing @nytimes writes total fiction concerning me. They have gotten it wrong for two years, and now are making up stories & sources!" (Trump tweet)
•  Said that the media is not reporting all the terrorist attacks. "ISIS is on a campaign of genocide, committing atrocities across the world. Radical Islamic terrorists are determined to strike our homeland, as they did on 9/11, as they did from Boston to Orlando to San Bernardino and all across Europe.
  You've seen what happened in Paris and Nice. All over Europe it's happening. It's gotten to a point where it's not even being reported. And in many cases, the very, very dishonest press doesn't want to report it. They have their reasons and you understand that." (Trump's CENCOM speech)
• "The failing @nytimes was forced to apologize to its subscribers for the poor reporting it did on my election win. Now they are worse!" (Trump tweet) The Times did not apologize. (PolitiFact)
• Trump and others claimed that the bad people are pouring into the country because of a block on his immigration ban. In fact, the rules for entry into the United States are exactly the same as they were the day before the executive order. Those entering the country were vetted and approved.
• During the Super Bowl Sunday interview with Bill O'Reilly, Trump reiterated his belief that three to five million illegal votes were cast on election day. Still no evidence brought forward. 
• Trump stated in a meeting with sheriffs that "the murder rate in our country is the highest it's been in 47 years". He also said the press doesn't report it. Actually, the murder rate is very near it's lowest level. 

HOMICIDE RATE PER 100,000 POPULATION

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics (1950-2008), FBI (2009-2015)

• During the O'Reilly Factor interview, Trump stated that Obama liked him. How does he know? Because he can feel it. Proof. 
• "It is a disgrace that my full Cabinet is still not in place, the longest such delay in the history of our country. Obstruction by Democrats!" (Trump tweet) Not even close to the longest ever delay. 
• "While on FAKE NEWS @CNN, Bernie Sanders was cut off for using the term fake news to describe the network. They said technical difficulties!" (Trump tweet) Here is the real story from PolitiFact.

Perhaps not officially a false statement but certainly inappropriate for a president:

• "My daughter Ivanka has been treated so unfairly by @Nordstrom. She is a great person -- always pushing me to do the right thing! Terrible!" (POTUS retweet)
• Amazingly, any poll that he disagrees with is fake news. Yet, he constantly refers to polls he agrees with. Can't have it both ways, Donny.

I'm sure I missed some gaffs or other outright lies. Trump says so much BS that it is hard to keep up. What will this week bring us?

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Free or Safe

The recent Presidential Executive Order on immigration and entry from seven predominantly Muslim countries reopens the age old question and conflict between security and liberty. 

Like most issues, the public opinion pendulum swings from freedom and rights to security and back again. From the individual liberties to the government's need to know and control. Wash, rinse, repeat. 

During WWII, we sacrificed freedom and rights for perceived security by locking up thousands of Japanese-Americans in the internment camps. This wasn't just a restriction of Asian immigrants and visitors. It was the denial of freedom to legal United States citizens and residents, many native born. We look back on that as a major mistake and failure of our government to live up to our country's constitution and alleged ideals.

In the post-WWII cold war years, we had Senator Joe McCarthy and his communist witch hunt. He ruined the lives of many by branding them communists and enemies of America without due process or evidence. Several innocent people were blacklisted and forced into hiding. Again, looking back on this period there was no real threat, just mass paranoia. Paranoia that was used by a political demagogue to increase his power and influence. Sound familiar?

After the 9-11 attacks, Congress passed the PATRIOT Act which gave law enforcement and the government broad powers to infringe on our individual freedoms. Secret courts were established to issue rubber stamped subpoenas. 

Between these times of tension, real or imagined, we have backed off from the draconian measures. We freed the interned Japanese-Americans and vowed never to do that again. Senator McCarthy was disgraced and we vowed never to allow such a demagogue to rise to power again. When the PATRIOT Act came up for renewal, it was watered down a bit although mostly stays in effect. The wisdom and constitutionality of this law are still being debated. 

Now we have new President Trump fanning the flames of paranoia in our country to impose draconian restrictions on those non-citizens who have legally obtained permission to enter this country. Even those with valid visas and green cards were detained at entry points. Others were denied at their point of travel origin. The executive order targets seven Muslim-majority countries. Coincidently, Trump promised to ban all Muslims from entering the country during his campaign. Time will tell whether this is a legal or even wise executive order. Time will also tell whether we will look back in a few years and as a society approve of it or wonder what the hell we were thinking. 

Right now, we have an administration that will emphasize the dangers in our world, promote security over freedom, and increase their control and power over the government and individuals. It would be refreshing if Trump and the Trumpettes put as much effort into the implementation phase of these executive orders as they do the PR, spin and Twitter wording. National security is often used as a reason to enact all kinds of stuff that restricts individual rights. If the government stirs up enough paranoia, it makes it much easier. The land of the free and home of the brave often isn't. The most well-armed population on earth seems to be one of the most fearful. 

The pendulum is definitely moving toward security and away from freedom and rights. Is this a temporary situation or a protracted era? Regardless of how many rights are taken away, we will never be completely secure. Times change, security methods must also change but they should never trump (pun intended) liberty.

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